University of Chicago
Graduate School of Business
On leave
at:
Federal
Reserve Bank of
(612)
204-5487

“No-Arbitrage
Taylor Rules” (with Andrew
Ang and Sen Dong)
updated September 2007, NBER Working
paper 13448.
"Futures
Prices as Risk-adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy" (with Eric Swanson) Journal of Monetary Economics 2008 May issue. New York Times 7/11/04
“Asset
Prices and Asset Quantities” (with Martin Schneider), Journal of the European Economic Association
2007, 5, p. 380-389.
“Inflation
Illusion, Credit, and Asset Pricing’’ (with Martin Schneider),
forthcoming in John Y. Campbell (ed.) ”Asset Prices
and Monetary Policy”, 2006. Article in the Region: “Masters of Illusion”
“Equilibrium
Yield Curves” (with Martin
Schneider) and zip-file with MATLAB programs, in Daron
Acemoglu, Kenneth Rogoff,
and Michael Woodford, NBER Macroeconomics
Annual 2006 , published in 2007, Cambridge MA: MIT press p. 389-442.
"Housing,
consumption, and asset pricing" (with Martin Schneider and Selale
Tuzel), Journal
of Financial Economics 83, March 2007 (lead article), pp. 531-569. Economist 4/20/06.
“Modeling
Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics” (with Francis X. Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch), American
Economic Review P&P Volume 95, Issue 2, May 2005, pp. 415-420. Appendix.
“What does
the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?" (with
Andrew Ang
and Min
Wei), Journal of Econometrics
2006, 131, pp. 359-403. Economist 6/2/05. Businessweek 01/09/06. Out of sample forecasts, Dec 2005
"Bond
risk premia" (with John Cochrane),
Appendix
and zip-file with MATLAB programs, American Economic Review Volume 95, Issue 1, March 2005, pp.
138-160. Out of sample forecasts, Feb 2007
"Bond
yields and the Federal Reserve", Journal of Political Economy Volume 113, Issue 2, April
2005 pp. 311-344.
Earlier
2001 version: "An
econometric model of the yield curve with macroeconomic jump effects",
NBER Working paper no 8246.
"Corporate earnings and the equity premium" (with Francis Longstaff), 2004, Journal of Financial Economics Volume 74 (lead article),
Issue 3, pp. 401-421.
"A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with
Macroeconomic and Latent Variables" (with Andrew Ang), Journal of Monetary Economics Volume
50, Issue 4, May 2003, pp. 745-787.
"The Fed and Interest Rates: A
High-frequency Identification" (with John Cochrane), American Economic Review P&P,
May 2002, Volume 92, Issue 2, pp. 90-95. zip-file with MATLAB programs.
“Estimating
Rational Expectations Models”, prepared for the New Palgrave, May
2007.
"Affine
term structure models" prepared for the Handbook of Financial Econometrics.
zip-file with MATLAB programs.
“The
Role of Policy Rules in Inflation Targeting, Commentary”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 2004,
Volume 86, Issue 4, pp. 113-15.
“The
6D Bias and the Equity-Premium Puzzle: Comment," B. S. Bernanke and K. Rogoff, NBER macroeconomics annual 2001. Volume 16.
"Note
on exponential-affine stock prices" answers questions raised at
the NBER asset pricing spring conference 2002 in
CEPR
Focus Session Overview Slides